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Week of 28 September 2026
The Bank of England now expects inflation to reach about 4.2% in early 2027, firms closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected money mules in 2025, and petrol hits 173p a litre. Plus a chart of government borrowing against forecast, and this week's interview question about the Budget.
By Kinza 3 min read Facts checked 29 Sept 2026 How I check
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The Bank of England now expects inflation to reach about 4.2% in early 2027
On 24 September Clare Lombardelli, a member of the Bank of England's , said the Bank's latest near-term forecast has inflation rising from 3.1% now to around 3.7% in the last three months of 2026, and to around 4.2% in the first three months of 2027. That is "materially higher" than the Bank expected in July. She pointed to the global energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East.
What it means
Monetary Policy Committee
The group of nine people at the Bank of England who vote on Bank Rate, the UK's main interest rate. Their decision affects what banks charge on loans and pay on savings.
Source: Bank of EnglandWhat it means
CPI
Short for Consumer Prices Index. Every month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) checks the prices of about 700 everyday items, like a giant shopping basket, and compares them with a year earlier. The result is CPI, the inflation rate the Bank of England tries to keep at 2%.
Source: Bank of Englandwhat it means for you
What 4.2% means
£10 → £10.42
Inflation is how fast prices go up. If prices rise 4.2% over a year, something that costs £10 today costs about £10.42 a year later.
Your lunch
+£109.20
a year, for the same £10 lunches five days a week.
Your money
£19.19
is all £20 a week buys after a year, if your pocket money or pay doesn't rise too.
Your savings
1.65%
was the average paid on money in instant-access accounts in August, including ones that pay nothing. With prices rising faster, savings buy less.
Borrowing
Target 2%
To bring inflation back to 2%, the Bank may raise interest rates, so loans like car finance usually cost more.
try your own numbers
What you spend on lunch each week
£50.00
What you have saved
£100.00
same shopping, same savings, one year later
MONEY IN 3 MINUTES
Receipt from next year
| Item | Now | Next year |
|---|---|---|
| Lunch, a week | £50.00 | £52.10 |
| Extra, a week | £2.10 | |
| Extra, a year | £109.20 | |
| Savings at 1.65% | £100.00 | £101.65 |
| Same shopping | £100.00 | £104.20 |
you're short £2.55
Prices +4.2% · Savings +1.65%
No refunds on inflation
4.2%: the Bank of England's forecast for early 2027. 1.65%: the Bank of England's average for instant-access money (sight deposits) in August 2026. The £10 lunch and £20 pocket money are examples to show the sums.
4.2%
Inflation forecast, early 2027
Sources
- Bank of England · The outlook for inflation, speech by Clare Lombardelli, 24 September 2026
- Office for National Statistics · Consumer price inflation, August 2026: 3.1%, next release 21 October
- Bank of England · Effective interest rates, August 2026: sight deposits 1.65%
- Bank of England · Further details about effective interest rates data: what counts as a sight deposit
- Bank of England · The 2% inflation target
- Bank of England · Bank Rate, and how it affects what banks charge and pay
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Firms closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected money mules last year
A money mule lets criminals use their bank account to receive or move money for them. The says 238,396 suspected mules had their accounts closed in 2025, up from 233,269 in 2024 and 184,935 in 2023. 85,425 of the closures were customers aged 25 and under. Being a mule can mean losing access to your bank account and being prosecuted. The FCA's advice: no legitimate company will ask you to use your own bank account to transfer its money.
What it means
FCA
Short for Financial Conduct Authority: the UK's watchdog for financial firms such as banks and lenders. It sets the standards they must meet and holds them to account if they don't.
Source: Financial Conduct Authoritywhat it means for you
How many young people
234 a day
In 2025, 85,425 customers aged 25 and under had their accounts closed as suspected money mules. That is about 234 every day.
What it looks like
“Easy £200”
For example, a message offering cash to let a payment go through your account and send it on. The money comes from crime.
What you'd lose
Your account
It can be closed, taking your wages, online shopping and savings with it, and you could be prosecuted.
What to do
Say no
Never let anyone use your account or card. No real job asks you to move its money through your own account. If you're not sure, talk to a parent, a teacher or your bank.
85,425
Closures, aged 25 and under, 2025
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Petrol hits 173p a litre, its highest price this year
The average price of a litre of petrol in the UK was 173.46p on 28 September, the highest this year, according to the government's weekly figures. On 2 March, the last week before prices began to jump, it was 132.14p, so it has gone up by 41.32p a litre, about 31%, in under seven months. Diesel was 197.58p. The says transport, particularly motor fuels, made the biggest contribution to the rise in in August.
What it means
ONS
Short for Office for National Statistics, the UK's official statistics body. It collects facts and figures about the country. For example, every month it checks around 180,000 prices of about 700 items to work out CPI, which shows how fast prices are rising.
Source: Bank of EnglandWhat it means
Inflation
How fast prices are rising. It covers goods, like food and TVs, and services, like haircuts and train tickets. If inflation is 3%, something that cost £10 a year ago costs about £10.30 now.
Source: Bank of Englandwhat it means for you
Filling a tank
+£20.66
more to fill a 50-litre tank than on 2 March: £86.73 instead of £66.07.
Learning to drive
£17.35
for 10 litres of petrol now, up from £13.21 in March.
Your family's budget
+£82.64
every four weeks, for a family filling a 50-litre tank once a week.
Prices everywhere
Biggest push
Transport, especially fuel, was the biggest reason inflation went up in August. And inflation is what the Bank of England watches when it sets interest rates.
try your own numbers
Litres of petrol used each week
50 litres
same driving, new prices
MONEY IN 3 MINUTES
Petrol receipt
| Item | 2 March | 28 September |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol, a week | £66.07 | £86.73 |
| Extra, a week | £20.66 | |
| Extra, a year | £1,074.32 |
extra a year £1,074.32
Average UK pump prices
No refunds on inflation
Prices: the government's weekly average UK pump prices for 2 March and 28 September 2026. The 50-litre tank is an example to show the sums.
173.46p
Petrol, a litre, 28 September
Chart of the week
Government borrowing this year: £8.1bn above forecast
Borrowing is the gap between what the government spends and what it takes in from taxes and other income. This chart adds it up month by month since the financial year started in April, next to the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast. By the end of August the government had borrowed £77.3 billion, £8.1 billion more than forecast. The Budget, with a new OBR forecast, is on 28 October.
View the data Hide the data
| Date | Borrowed so far | OBR forecast (March) |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | £23.4bn | £20.9bn |
| May 2026 | £43.3bn | £38.6bn |
| June 2026 | £57bn | £54.9bn |
| July 2026 | £59bn | £54.4bn |
| August 2026 | £77.3bn | £69.2bn |